New Seat Details - Washington and Sunderland West

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Washington and Sunderland West been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
LAB	28,078	61.2%
CON	12,971	28.3%
UKIP	3,083	6.7%
LIB	1,093	2.4%
Green	570	1.2%
OTH	48	0.1%
LAB Majority	15,107	33.0%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Washington and Sunderland West: Map

List of old seats forming part of Washington and Sunderland West

Old seat: Houghton and Sunderland South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Houghton and Sunderland South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Houghton and Sunderland South				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Sunderland	Copt Hill	8,767	Houghton and Seaham	1,487	3,305	69	182	118	0	0	135	5,296
Sunderland	Doxford	7,563	Houghton and Seaham	1,519	2,525	82	269	102	0	0	27	4,524
Sunderland	Hetton	8,632	Houghton and Seaham	1,426	3,296	121	327	51	0	0	36	5,257
Sunderland	Houghton	9,016	Houghton and Seaham	1,570	3,190	135	352	58	0	0	116	5,421
Sunderland	Sandhill	7,976	Washington and Sunderland West	1,274	3,439	132	322	57	0	0	48	5,272
Sunderland	Shiney Row	9,719	Houghton and Seaham	1,928	3,436	154	357	134	0	0	44	6,053
Sunderland	Silksworth	8,109	Houghton and Seaham	1,474	3,097	94	309	125	0	0	32	5,131
Sunderland	St Chad's	7,547	Houghton and Seaham	1,646	2,377	122	261	81	0	0	41	4,528
	Total	67,329		12,324	24,665	909	2,379	726	0	0	479	41,482

The full details of these calculations are given on the Houghton and Sunderland South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Washington and Sunderland West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Washington and Sunderland West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Washington and Sunderland West				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Sunderland	Castle	8,332	Washington and Sunderland West	1,170	3,486	65	357	33	0	0	0	5,111
Sunderland	Redhill	8,107	Washington and Sunderland West	1,118	3,510	63	356	30	0	0	0	5,077
Sunderland	St Anne's	8,084	Washington and Sunderland West	1,409	3,310	86	373	65	0	0	0	5,243
Sunderland	Washington Central	8,654	Washington and Sunderland West	1,564	2,881	173	344	79	0	0	0	5,041
Sunderland	Washington East	8,801	Washington and Sunderland West	1,889	2,594	121	304	71	0	0	0	4,979
Sunderland	Washington North	8,183	Washington and Sunderland West	1,250	3,421	122	362	83	0	0	0	5,238
Sunderland	Washington South	7,846	Washington and Sunderland West	1,673	2,381	158	310	71	0	0	0	4,593
Sunderland	Washington West	8,978	Washington and Sunderland West	1,624	3,056	173	355	81	0	0	0	5,289
	Total	66,985		11,697	24,639	961	2,761	513	0	0	0	40,571

The full details of these calculations are given on the Washington and Sunderland West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Washington and Sunderland West

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Washington and Sunderland West
Sunderland	Castle	8,474	Washington and Sunderland West	1,170	3,486	65	357	33	0	0	0	5,111
Sunderland	Redhill	8,420	Washington and Sunderland West	1,118	3,510	63	356	30	0	0	0	5,077
Sunderland	Sandhill	8,657	Houghton and Sunderland South	1,274	3,439	132	322	57	0	0	48	5,272
Sunderland	St Anne's	8,697	Washington and Sunderland West	1,409	3,310	86	373	65	0	0	0	5,243
Sunderland	Washington Central	8,359	Washington and Sunderland West	1,564	2,881	173	344	79	0	0	0	5,041
Sunderland	Washington East	8,259	Washington and Sunderland West	1,889	2,594	121	304	71	0	0	0	4,979
Sunderland	Washington North	8,685	Washington and Sunderland West	1,250	3,421	122	362	83	0	0	0	5,238
Sunderland	Washington South	7,615	Washington and Sunderland West	1,673	2,381	158	310	71	0	0	0	4,593
Sunderland	Washington West	8,772	Washington and Sunderland West	1,624	3,056	173	355	81	0	0	0	5,289
	Total	75,938		12,971	28,078	1,093	3,083	570	0	0	48	45,843

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Washington and Sunderland West. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Sharon Hodgson (LAB)
County/Area:	Newcastle area (North East)
Electorate:	75,938
Turnout:	60.4%

Washington and Sunderland West: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Washington and Sunderland West: Overview

Introduction